It is often said that over the long-term, value stocks outperform their growth rivals. With that in mind, the performances of value and growth stocks during the current bull market in U.S. equities is vexing.
Since the start of the current bull market on March 10, 2009 through April 30, 2018, the S&P 500 Growth Index returned over 368 percent while the S&P 500 Value Index was higher by just over 309 percent. The value benchmark also lagged the S&P 500 over that period. Over the trailing 12-, 24- and 36-month periods, the S&P 500 Growth Index maintains healthy advantages over its value counterpart.
A byproduct of value’s laggard status is that a growing number of market observers and investors are willing to say it is just a matter of time before value starts topping growth. Value supporters point to lofty valuations on the FANG stocks – Facebook Inc. (NASDAQ:FB), Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ:AZMN), Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL) – as a sign that growth names could be vulnerable to retrenchment.
“Value stocks are trading at 13.5 times forward earnings; the FANG stocks— Facebook (FB), Amazon.com (AMZN), Netflix (NFLX), and Alphabet’s Google (GOOGL)—are trading at nearly double that, though a still surprisingly low 24 times,” reports Barron’s, citing Thomas Lee at FundStrat Global Advisors.1
Why Now For Value
Betting on trend reversal simply because the trend in question has been in place for a while is not a winning strategy, but there are reasons to believe the value factor could have its day. One of the potential catalysts is the stronger dollar.
S&P 500 members generate 70.9% of their revenue on a domestic basis, but for S&P 500 Value components, that number jumps to 73%, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.2 A similar theme is seen with mid-cap stocks where members of the S&P MidCap 400 Value Index derive more sales on a domestic basis than members of the S&P MidCap 400 Index.
There are other signs value is making its way back. The sample size is admittedly small, but April marked the second consecutive month in which the S&P 500 Value Index topped its growth counterpart.
Related: Where Dividend Growth And Yield Meet
A Value Idea
Value stocks may look enticing, but there are some drawbacks to consider with traditional value funds. One of those drawbacks is sector concentration risk, a condition that also pertains to many growth funds.
At the end of April, the S&P 500 Value Index allocated 24.60% of its weight to financial services stocks, nearly double its second-largest sector exposure (energy).
The ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG) limits single stock and sector-level risk by equally weighting stocks and sectors. At the end of the first quarter, nine of SDOG’s 10 sector exposures had weights ranging from 10.11% to 11.06%.
By using an equal-weight methodology, SDOG’s underlying index can bring a refreshed view on value to some sectors not often thought of as value destinations. As two examples, SDOG was, at the end of the first quarter, significantly overweight consumer discretionary and technology names relative to the S&P 500 Value Index.
1 Source: Barron’s April 28, 2018 https://www.barrons.com/articles/are-value-stocks-ready-to-grow-again-1524877217
2 Source: S&P Dow Jones Indices May 13, 2018 http://www.indexologyblog.com/2018/05/13/heres-how-a-rising-dollar-impacts-stocks/
This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read it carefully before investing.
Standardized performance for the ALPS Sector Dividend Dos ETF (SDOG) can be found here. Current holdings for SDOG can be found here.
ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF Shares are not individually redeemable. Investors buy and sell shares of the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF a secondary market. Only market makers or “authorized participants” may trade directly with the Fund, typically in blocks of 50,000 shares.
ALPS Advisors, Inc. (AAI) has engaged IRIS Werks, LLC (IRIS) to produce analysis and commentary on ALPS-advised ETFs. IRIS currently has a compensated business relationship with AAI. AAI is not affiliated with IRIS.
S&P 500 – The S&P 500® (Ticker: SPX) is an index of 500 stocks chosen for market size, liquidity and industry grouping among other factors.
S&P 500 Value Index is a market capitalization weighted index. All the stocks in the underlying parent index are allocated into value or growth.
S&P Midcap 400 Value Index is a market capitalization weighted index. All the stocks in the underlying parent index are allocated into value or growth. Stocks that do not have pure value & pure growth characteristics have their market caps distributed between the value and growth indices.
S&P Midcap 400 Index is a capitalization-weighted index which measures the performance of the mid-range sector of the U.S. stock market.
One may not invest directly in an index.
The content and opinions expressed in this article are that of the author and not the views and opinions of ALPS Advisors, Inc. In addition, ALPS Advisors, Inc. assumes no responsibility to ensure the accuracy of the content written by the author.
There are risks involved with investing in ETFs including the loss of money. Additional information regarding the risks of this investment is available in the prospectus. Past Performance is not indicative of future results.
ALPS Portfolio Solutions Distributor, Inc. is the distributor for the ALPS Sector Dividend Dogs ETF (SDOG).
The author is not an investment professional and this article should not be considered investment advice. While the information and statistical data contained herein are based on sources believed to be reliable, the author takes no responsibility to ensure the accuracy of the content. Additionally, this article should not be relied on or be the basis for an investment decision. Information that is historical is not indicative of future results, and subject to change.
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