Lance Roberts

As we detail below, their profit margins are shrinking, and their economic outlook remains favorable. #bank #economy #markets

In terms of statistics, a single four-standard deviation event should be rare. Three months in a row is a near statistical impossibility. #markets

The current performance is relatively in line with prior bull market cycles. Jurrien sums up his analysis: Time is still on our side. #markets

While most Wall Street economists have backed down their forecast for Fed Fund rate cuts from six to two, State Street remains very aggressive. #markets

The increase in leverage is not surprising, as it represents increased risk-taking by investors in the stock market. #markets

With Mother’s Day approaching and bullish market exuberance present, such is an excellent time to revisit the investing lessons she taught me. #mom

If the junk bond market experiences similar rising default rates as junk loans, its investors will be in for quite a rude awakening. Until then, party on!

There is little to be concerned about as 38% of the time, the market is cranking out greater than 20% returns versus just 6% of 20%. #markets

Despite two of the largest bull markets in history since 1980, most Americans struggle with making ends meet and are unprepared for retirement.

Might small cap stocks be a safe port in the storm if a recession hits, or might the correlation turn positive? #strategy #markets

When investors are exuberant and willing to overpay for future earnings growth, valuations increase. #growth #value #markets

CRE deals involving distressed sellers are still surprisingly low, at just 3.5% of all deals formed in the US in 2023. #markets #CRE

Forecasts depend on a steady and predictable pace of age and retirement. But that is not what is currently happening. #NCRetirementCenter

Unless the BOJ continues to raise rates or the yen rallies versus the dollar, we are not concerned that capital flows from Japan will reverse. #Japan #BOJ

Despite recent sticky inflation, they still think the overall story of inflation moving down to 2% on a bumpy road is still valid. #inflation #markets

The blackout of stock buybacks threatens to reduce one of the liquidity sources supporting the bullish run this year. #markets

Household equity allocations are again sharply rising, as the Fear Of Missing Out or F.O.M.O.” fuels a near panic mentality to chase markets higher.

With economic conditions normalizing rapidly, we should shift our attention to monetary policy. #markets #economy

Digital currencies and gold have become decent barometers of speculative investor appetite. Such isn’t surprising. #markets 

A clue as to which survey, household, or headline might be correct can be found in the hourly wages and ADP data. #markets #employment

From a portfolio management perspective, we must understand what happens during election years concerning the stock market and investor returns. #election

Just recently, Bank of America noted that the market is expensive based on 20 of the 25 valuation metrics they track. #growth #invest

Bitcoin tends to attract speculators. Accordingly, it provides an excellent gauge of speculation and exuberance in the financial markets. #Bitcoin #bonds

Chart by Vanda Research shows that the average retail dumb money investor portfolio still sports a drawdown despite the markets making new all-time highs.

This warning has been triggered 11 times since 2017, of which two were early, five occurred very close to the peak, and four were false alarms. #markets

The bottom line is that shale oil production declines much quicker than traditional wells, but the rate of decline is less than investors fear. #markets

To maintain that growth pace indefinitely, particularly at 32x price-to-sales, means others like AMD and Intel must lose market share. #markets

Might his $150 million sale be a warning, or is he simply taking a few chips off the table, given JPM’s recent performance?#stocks #CEO

For small-cap investors, the time to take profits and move to safer pastures is likely closer than you think. #investing

Since the start of 2024, only two Magnificent Seven stocks have been beating the market significantly. #stocks #strategy

Consequently, corporate debt issuance has been below average, sparing some corporations the need to borrow at higher interest rates. #cash

Natural response for investors who are concerned about market risk. However, rather than fearing market exuberance, we must understand what drives #markets

As we have said, keep an eye on employment trends. America’s recession warning will come when unemployment starts to rise.

Regarding the surprisingly strong employment data, Fed Chair Powell said the quiet part out loud. #rates #markets #economy

Stock initially surged 100%, but as shown below, it quickly gave up a large chunk of the gains. The stock is still poised to have a substantial increase.

The NFIB reports suggests that small and mid-cap businesses continue struggling with slower economic growth and higher rates. #markets

What happened next was the longest win streak in 52 years that pushed the market to new all-time highs. #markets

The supply side of the energy transition is well on its way, but the demand side of the equation presents a major obstacle to victory. #energy

Plenty of articles and commentaries address the concern of supply and affordability, with the younger generations getting hit the hardest. #housing

Growing pressure to stimulate the economy and boost its stock markets. It appears the plan to stop the stock market decline is coming into focus. #China

Fast forward 2-full years of returning investors to breakeven, and the market is again approaching that magical round number of 5000. #markets

we must ask- are the banking problems from last year resolved, or is the Fed worried? #banking #strategy

As the financial markets grind higher, retirement savers have consciously decided to add more to equity risk. #strategy #retirement

Rent and imputed rents comprise a third of CPI. If CPI rents fall to actual levels, CPI will likely be at or below the Fed’s 2% target. #rent

Detailing the amount of money Taylor Swift’s tour is making for herself and how much economic activity it generates. #taylorswift

Nonetheless, the valuations paid for many companies today, in terms of price-to-sales, are certainly not justifiable. #AI #markets

Correctly, in the aftermath of crisis events, some of these assets rotate from safety to risk, but not the degree commentators suggest. #markets

If correct, margins would rise back to or above pre-pandemic levels. But, all bets are off if a recession occurs. #markets #recession

Lower than where it has been in all other pre-recession periods. Either there isn’t a recession in sight, or the rate is lower than usual. #recession

Bitcoin is now a de facto part of the financial regulatory system and will be more scrutinized by the government. #Bitcoin #ETF