Emotional Energy: Why Sweat The Small Stuff?

Emotional Energy: Why Sweat The Small Stuff?

“Accurately identify your emotions as they occur, and then move on.” Sounds simple, right? Well, as we learned in Checking Your Gauge, Part 1, only a minority of us can pull off the “identify” part. And “move on”? That’s an even greater longshot. But what we also learned is that a little self-awareness can be the magic ingredient in our emotional energy tank. It enables us to catch negative emotions before we’re triggered to act on them (which depletes the tank).

Think of all the irritations that seep into your everyday life (slow walkers, people speaking loudly on the train when you’re trying to work, finding a proposal you thought you’d sent out 2 days ago still sitting in your drafts folder). Now think of the negative voice in your head sounding its response (Crap! I’m so behind in my work that I’ll never get everything done; I’m such a moron! How am I ever going to ‘make it if I can’t even remember to execute?) Once we recognize these small annoyances, we can intentionally release the associated emotions. After their full 90-second life span has elapsed, we can become clear-headed and move on, instead of staying in-trance by letting the residuals fester. Let’s look at the practical ways to release.

The Science of Release
 

For the truest results, the process of releasing bad emotions should be examined from a strict black & white, binary, purely scientific Dr. Spock point of view. Our emotional energy tank becomes drained when the brain releases cortisol. By contrast, this precious reservoir becomes enriched when oxytocin is flowing. These opposing actions are determined by how we respond or react to a situation, event or conversation.

Since emotion is deeply-seated in our amygdala, we must actively lead our attention away from this ancient, reactionary part of the brain. But how are we mere mortals expected to accomplish this task on a nearly continuous basis? The answer is that we all have the built-in capabilities, and they’re the kind that successful people use to their advantage. It’s called becoming curious, self-compassionate and proactive. This is as simple as acknowledging the “ughhh”, and then letting that emotion drift away into the wind. It’s called choosing to laugh at yourself, accepting that “it happened, and now I’m over it.”

Related: Resilience as the Fortifier of Your Career

Why Sweat The Small Stuff?
 

When daily nuisances are managed, we can better manage the big emotional drains in our lives and careers, like losing a job, going through divorce, or experiencing the death of a loved one. The small stuff requires curiosity, compassion and patience….essentially, the changing of one’s mindset. While we don’t get to choose the event, we do get to choose the response, and ultimately, to move on.

The next time you feel agitated by someone speaking loudly on their cell phone while riding the train, you may get a twinge of anger and your eyes may narrow. This is your cue to practice ‘catch and release’. Recognize your anger for what it is, and allow it. Then breathe for a few seconds, and move on. I know, it’s easier said than done. But once you practice this awareness, you’ll be in control of your emotions, rather than letting them control you. Sometimes, the simple solutions have the most profound effects!

Deborah Goldstein
Human Capital
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Deborah Goldstein is a recovering restaurateur who founded DRIVEN Professionals to assist companies in attracting, retaining and promoting exceptional talent. DRIVEN ... Click for full bio

All the Talk of an Accelerating Economy and Rising Inflation Just Doesn't Add Up

All the Talk of an Accelerating Economy and Rising Inflation Just Doesn't Add Up

The biggest news for the markets this week came from the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, it released the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting notes and they were interpreted as dovish by some and hawkish by others as analysts raced to divine insight from the text.

The recent data isn’t supporting the narrative of accelerating global growth and inflation while equities continue to experience higher volatility.  What does it mean for stocks, bonds and yields? Glad you asked! Here’s my take on why all the talk on an accelerating economy and rising inflation just doesn't add up when you look at the data.

Equity Markets — A Relatively Narrow Recovery


The shortened trading week opened Tuesday with every sector except technology closing in the red. The S&P 500 fell back below its 50-day moving average after Walmart (WMT) reported disappointing results, falling over 10% on the day, having its worst trading day in over 30 years.

Walmart’s online sales grew 23% in the fourth quarter, but had grown 29% in the same quarter a year prior and were up 50% in the third quarter. We saw further evidence of the deflationary power of our Connected Society investing theme as the company reported the lowest operating margin in its history.

Ongoing investment to combat Amazon (AMZN) and rising freight costs — a subject our premium research subscribers have heard a lot of about lately — were the primary culprits behind Walmart's declining numbers. To really rub salt in that wound, Amazon shares hit a new record high the same day. This pushed the outperformance of the FAANG stocks versus the S&P 500 even higher.

Wednesday was much of the same, with most every sector again closing in the red, driven mostly by interpretations of the Federal Reserve’s release of the January Federal Open Market Committee meeting notes. In fact, twenty-five minutes after the release of those notes, the Dow was up 303 points . . . and then proceeded to fall 470 points to close the day down 167 points. To put that swing in context, so far in 2018, the Dow has experienced that kind of a range seven times but not once in 2017.

Thursday was a mixed bag. Most sectors were flat to slightly up as the S&P 500 closed up just +0.1%, while both the Russell 2000 and the Nasdaq Composite lost -0.1%. The energy sector was the strongest performer, gaining 1.3% while financials took a hit, falling 0.7%.

The recovery from the lows this year has been relatively narrow. As of Thursday’s close, the S&P 500 is still below its 50-day moving average, up 1.1% year-to-date with the median S&P 500 sector down -1.0%. Amazon, Microsoft and Netflix alone are responsible for nearly half of the year’s gain in the S&P 500. The Russell 2000 is down -0.4% year-to-date and also below its 50-day moving average. The Dow is up 78 points year-to-date, but without Boeing (BA), would be down 317 points as two-thirds of Dow stocks are in the red for the year.

Related: We're Back to “Bad News is Good News” and “Good News is Great News”

Fixed Income and Inflation — the Coming Debt Headwind


The 1-year Treasury yield hit 2.0%, the highest since 2008 while the 5-year Treasury yield has risen to the highest rate since 2010, these are material moves!

What hasn’t been terribly material so far is the Fed’s tapering program. It isn’t exactly a fire sale with the assets of the Federal Reserve down all off 0.99% since September 27 when Quantitative Tightening began, which translates into an annualized pace of 2.4%.

As for inflationary pressures, U.S. Import prices increased 3.6% year-over-year versus expectations for 3.0%, mostly reflecting the continued weakness in the greenback. The Amex Dollar Index (DXY) has been below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for all of 2018. The increase in import prices excluding fuel was the largest since 2012 and also beat expectations. Import prices for autos, auto parts and capital goods have accelerated but consumer good ex-autos once again moved into negative territory.

Outside the U.S. we see little evidence that inflation is accelerating. Korea’s PPI fell further to 1.2% - no evidence of rising inflation there. In China the Producer Price Index fell to a 1-year low – yet another sign that we don’t have rising global inflation. On Friday the European Central Bank’s measure of Eurozone inflation for January came in at 1.3% overall and has been fairly steadily declining since reaching a peak of 1.9% last April. This morning we saw that Japan’s Consumer Price Index rose for the 13th consecutive month in January, rising 0.9% from year-ago levels. Excluding fresh food and energy, the increase was just 0.4% - again, not exactly a hair-on-fire pace.

The reality is that the U.S. economy is today the most leveraged it has been in modern history with a total debt load of around $47 trillion. On average, roughly 20% of this debt rolls over annually. Using a quick back-of-the-envelope estimate, the new blended average rate for the debt that is rolling over this year will likely be 0.5% higher. That translates to approximately $250 billion in higher debt service costs this year. Talk about a headwind to both growth and inflationary pressures. The more the economy picks up steam and pushes interest rates up, the greater the headwind with such a large debt load… something consumers are no doubt familiar with and are poised to experience yet again in the coming quarters.

The Twists and Turns of Cryptocurrencies


The wild west drama of the cryptocurrency world continued this week as the South Korean official who led the government’s regulatory clampdown on cryptocurrencies was found dead Sunday, presumably having suffered a fatal heart attack, but the police have opened an investigation into the cause of his death.

Tuesday, according to Yonhap News, the nation’s financial regulator said the government will support “normal transactions” of cryptocurrencies, three weeks after banning digital currency trades through anonymous bank accounts. Yonhap also reported that the South Korean government will “encourage” banks to work with the cryptocurrency exchanges. Go figure. Bitcoin has nearly doubled off its recent lows.

Tuesday the crisis-ridden nation of Venezuela launched an oil-backed cryptocurrency, the “petro,” in hopes that it will help circumvent financials sanctions imposed by the U.S. and help improve the nation’s failing economy. This was the first cryptocurrency officially launched by a government. President Nicolás Maduro hosted a televised launch in the presidential palace which had been dressed up with texts moving on screens and party-like music stating, “The game took off successfully.” The government plans to sell 82.4 million petros to the public. This will be an interesting one to watch.

Related: Warning: Suppressed Volatility Ultimately Leads to Hyper-Volatility

Economy — Maintaining Context & Perspective is Key


Housing joined the ranks of U.S. economic indicators disappointing to the downside in January with the decline in existing home sales. Turnover fell 3.2%, the second consecutive decline, and is now at the lowest annual rate since last September. Sales were 4.8% below year-ago levels while the median sales price fell 2.4%, also the second consecutive decline and this marks the 6th decline in the past 7 months. U.S. mortgage applications for purchase are near a 52-week low.

Again, that’s the latest data, but as we like to say here at Tematica, context and perspective are key. Looking back over the past month, around 60% of the U.S. economic data releases have come in below expectations and this has prompted the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index (CESI) to test a 4-month low. Sorry to break it to you folks, but the prevailing narrative of an accelerating economy just isn’t supported by the hard data. No wonder that even the ever-optimistic Atlanta Fed has slashed its GDPNow forecast for the current quarter down to 3.2% from 5.4% on Feb. 1. We suspect further downward revisions are likely.

Looking up north, it wasn’t just the U.S. consumer who stepped back from buying with disappointing retail sales as Canadian retail sales missed badly, falling 0.8% versus expectations for a 0.1% decline. Over in the land of bronze, silver and gold dreams, South Korean exports declined 3.9% year-over-year.

Wednesday’s flash PMI’s were all pretty much a miss to the downside. Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for February declined more than was expected to 58.5 from 59.6 in January versus expectations for 59.2. Same goes for Services which dropped to 56.7 from 58 versus expectations for 57.7. France and Germany also saw both their manufacturing and services PMIs decline more than expected in February. The U.K. saw its unemployment rate rise unexpectedly to 4.4% from 4.3%

The Bottom Line


Economic acceleration and rising inflation aren’t showing up to the degree that was expected, and this was a market priced for perfection. The Federal Reserve is giving indications that it will not be providing the same kind of downside protection that asset prices have enjoyed since the crisis, pushing markets to reprice risk and question the priced-to-perfection stocks.

Lenore Elle Hawkins
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Lenore Hawkins serves as the Chief Macro Strategist for Tematica Research. With over 20 years of experience in finance, strategic planning, risk management, asset valuation an ... Click for full bio