The “candid and constructive” tweet rally from the previous Friday was short-lived as hopes of a trade deal evaporated by Monday morning after China said it would raise tariffs on U.S. goods and President Trump signed an executive order banning telecommunications equipment built by foreign adversaries (aimed at China’s Huawei Technologies).The market broke into a chorus of “I Don’t Like Mondays”, the 1979 classic from the Boomtown Rats, as the S&P 500 dropped 2.5%. Despite the bellicose rhetoric, a new narrative took hold that suggests that the Trump and Xi could strike a deal at the G20 Summit at the end of June.Outside of China some progress occurred last week with the auto tariff decision deferral and the lifting of Canadian/Mexican metals tariffs. Perhaps the biggest positive surprise came on Friday in the form of a surge in consumer sentiment to a 15-year high. The entire surge came from “future expectations” which had been significantly more downbeat than “present conditions” until this last reading. By the closing bell on Friday the S&P 500 had pared its weekly losses to 0.76% and the VIX (CBOE S&P 500 Volatility Index) was actually down 0.5% for the week.The yield on the Ten-Year Treasury dropped 8 basis points to reach an 18-month low of 2.39%. Additionally, the Fed Funds futures market now suggest that there is better than a 50% chance that short-term rates will be cut later this year. Apparently, Walmart was an outlier retailer suggesting some signs of rising inflation. These Wal-Mart comments are fairly consistent with recent comments from Warren Buffett: Warren recently pointed out that stocks are ridiculously cheap if you believe that interest rates can remain at these low levels in conjunction with an economy at full employment and subdued inflation.On the other hand, he does caution that “the convergence of these factors would seem impossible to me." Generally, if I feel something is impossible, it’s going to change over time. I don’t know in what way, but I don’t think we can continue to have these variables in this relationship. At the risk of putting words in the Oracle of Omaha’s mouth, I believe that he is suggesting that interest rates are likely to rise and that stocks are more fairly valued.
