1. US Oil Production Hits Records
The US now accounts for the most oil production in the world. Importantly, as we share in the graph below courtesy of Axios, the ramp-up of US oil production since 2020 has helped offset recent supply reductions by Russia and Saudi Arabia. — Michael Lebowitz
2. 60/40 Correlations Not Cause for Alarm
One of the primary sources of allure with the 60/40 portfolio construction is that, historically speaking, stocks and bonds don’t share intimate correlations. Unfortunately, history didn’t do much for clients in 2022 when stocks and bonds tumbled in unison with aggregate bond funds and the 60/40 structure itself posting one of the worst years on record. Not surprisingly, 2022 woes for 60/40 stirred chatter about its foundation and relevance in a new investing regime. Indeed, 60/40 or slight variations thereof isn’t for everyone. A 40% fixed income allocation is arguably far too high for a 35-year-old client. Likewise, a 60% tilt to stocks could be too aggressive for clients in their 70s. — Todd Shriber
3. The Markets Are Front Running the First Rate Cut
In October, the markets were down 10% from the July high, bond yields were touching 5%, and talk of a coming recession was rampant. What happened? Interestingly, a Wall Street axiom says, “Sell the last Fed rate hike.” The reason is that when the Fed starts cutting rates, it is due to the onset of a recession, a bear market, or a financial event. At that point, as shown below, the markets are repricing for lower expectations of earnings growth rates and profitability. — Lance Roberts
4. Weren’t We Promised a Stock Market Crash in ‘23
At the end of 2022, Wall Street strategists made their 2023 predictions. They expected stocks to fall this year. Instead, the S&P 500 surged almost 20% and is now within range of minting new all-time highs. As usual, Wall Street forecasts proved worthless. Where do we go from here? — Stephen McBride
5. The Best Way To Manage Emotional Clients
There comes a time for all of us when we find ourselves dealing with a client who is not acting rationally, or logically, and is driven by their emotions. It’s tough to handle isn’t it? — Tony Vidler
6. 15 Ways To Start Conversations at Holiday Parties
Holiday parties provide several unique opportunities. In many communities, local nonprofits hold holiday concerts, fundraisers or parties for members. Community leaders and major donors tend to show up. Everyone is in a good mood. However, like a high school dance, it is easy to feel out of place. How can you engage with a total stranger? Let us look at 15 easy ways to get conversations started. — Bryce Sanders
7. Welcome to the Year End Rally
The stock market is often a reflection of the economy, the consumer, and the sentiment of the investors. Based on the increases we've seen over the past four weeks, what can we expect for the end of the year? — Ryan Detrick & Sonu Varghese
8. Ten Variant Market Views for 2024
The great Byron Wien passed away this past year. Byron was the Chief Investment Strategist at Morgan Stanley for twenty-one years. He was most famous for his iconic annual list of “Top Ten Surprises”. For at least a decade or more, there was nothing written by Wall Street banks that was more anticipated by the investment community. Byron made ten predictions that he argued the market assigned less than one-third probability, but he believed had a 50% or better chance of occurring. — Tim Pierotti
9. Financial Markets: How High for How Long?
The anticipated end to the rate-hiking cycle of the past two years could be an important tailwind for financial markets in 2024. But how much of a boost it gives may largely depend on the economic backdrop that unfolds – and how low central banks are willing to go if they do start cutting rates. — Kevin McCreadie
10. Rewarding Referrals Increases Referrals
Let’s start with the statistical evidence – then we’ll get to the “how to.” I’ve seen two studies indicating that rewarding clients for making introductions increases that desired behavior. The first study was a financial services-based study that showed that using small gifts to thank clients for introductions increased referrals by 40%. And, a more general industry study – conducted by Baylor University – demonstrated that the use of small gifts to thank clients for introductions resulted in a 22% increase. — Bill Cates
11. Marketing to Women on Purpose: The Change the Financial Industry Needs
The financial industry has done a lousy job of making this industry more attractive and conducive for not just women advisors but for women clients too. We need to make a change – but how? — Adri Miller-Heckman