AFTER MONTHS OF DISMAL POLLS, there may be an attitude shift on the economy. The highly regarded University of Michigan poll of consumer sentiment has surged, and fears of inflation have plunged. Needless to say, White House officials are ecstatic.
DEMOCRATS CAN’T GLOAT, THAT COULD BACKFIRE: The White House mantra is that there’s more work to do. And there’s no certainty that higher confidence will automatically lead to higher spending. But two key factors — plunging gasoline prices and the stock market at a record high — are highly visible signs that should fuel strong real disposable income.
THE MICHIGAN INDEX HAD a reading of 78.8 for January, its highest level since July 2021 and up 21.4% from a year ago. On a two month basis, it was the biggest jump since 1991.
SENTIMENT HAS NOW RISEN BY nearly 60% above the all-time low measured in June of 2022 “and is likely to provide some positive momentum for the economy,” said Joanne Hsu, the Michigan survey director.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE INFLATION RATE rate a year from now declined to 2.9%, down from 3.1% in December for the lowest reading since December 2020. The survey’s index of current conditions also leaped higher, rising to 83.3, or 21.6% higher than a year ago.
TIMING IS EVERYTHING: Most polltakers believe that public attitudes on the economy don’t change much after Labor Day, so that means the White House still has a half year to get the numbers higher. We have thought for weeks that the economy won’t be a big negative for Biden. Even if it’s a neutral, that’s a major improvement for Biden’s prospects.
THE THEME IN RECENT DAYS HAS BEEN who has the better — or worst — cognitive skills, but that’s a losing issue for both candidates: “My cognitive decline isn’t as bad as my opponent’s cognitive decline” is not exactly a compelling argument.
BUT A BETTER ECONOMY, with data to support that improvement, is a big deal. This looks like a “goldilocks” economy, and if Americans finally begin to believe that, Joe Biden has a decent chance of winning re-election.
Related: GOP Lawmakers Are Falling Into Line on Trump Agenda
The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.
The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.
AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.