Trump is the most polarizing figure of all time.If you say something good about him, half of people will hate you. If you say something bad about him, the other half will hate you.It is a no-win situation. So financial writers, myself included, never write about him.But that’s dumb! Donald J. Trump is the biggest driver of financial markets in the world. Hands down. How can you not write about him?So here is what we are going to do.I’m going to talk about Trump, but I’m going to talk about Trump in a rational, nonpartisan, equitable fashion.Trump is capable of both good and bad. You can make money off Trump by anticipating his moves—which are not hard to predict.
Stocks are higher.Trump wants interest rates lower. Interest rates are lower.Trump wants the dollar weaker. The dollar is getting weaker.Trump wants oil lower. Oil has not been especially high.Do you really want to get into a fight with Trump?Amazingly, people do. People get into a fight with Trump all the time. Lots of people out there trying to short bonds.Dude. The president is literally ordering the central bank to lower interest rates and threatening to fire the head guy unless he gets his way. And you want to short bonds? Right. Trump’s influence on monetary policy is unquestionably bad. He has obliterated decades of presidential norms and has set a precedent that will result in more executive interference at the Fed, resulting in (eventually) sharply higher inflation.So yes, it is unquestionably bad. Doesn’t mean you can’t trade on it!Let me tell you how powerful this is: Trump has been badgering the Fed for months. Interest rates have been coming down. Interest rates have been coming down around the world, in sympathy. Trump has lowered interest rates globally. You want to get into a fight with this?Trump is not going to stop until interest rates are negative and we’re doing QE.Think I’m kidding?Lots of people out there saying bonds are overbought.Really?Trump, good or bad, is the most transformative president we’ve had in a really long time. The office will never be the same. Obama, Bush I and II, and Clinton all colored within the lines.I am not much of a stock market bull… but I ain’t gonna short ‘em.